Methods
Every number, explained.
A high-level overview of the daily pipeline.
Feature groups
Player form
- Season and recent-window batting performance.
- Recent-form deviation from season baseline.
Opposing pitcher
- Season and recent-start performance.
- Pitcher tier and handedness matchup.
Matchup
- Platoon splits.
- Prior head-to-head history when the sample is meaningful.
Context
- Park effects.
- Weather.
- Umpire tendencies.
Models & calibration
- Probabilities are calibrated against outcomes and re-tuned on a rolling window.
- Every daily slate is graded once games are final and results are shown on the History page.